Bengal’s Shifting Demographics: Porous Borders and the Roots of Demographic Shift

By a Staff Reporter: In the fertile deltas of West Bengal, where the Ganges spills into the Bay of Bengal, a quiet but profound demographic transformation has been reshaping society since Partition in 1947. What began as a trickle of displaced populations has, over decades, grown into a tide that is altering Bengal’s cultural, political, and economic fabric.

From Partition to Present: A Changing Demographic Map

Census data captures the shift starkly. In 1951, Hindus made up 78.45% of Bengal’s population, while Muslims accounted for 19.85%. By 2011, Hindus had dropped to 70.54% and Muslims had risen to 27.01%, representing over 24.6 million people. Projections for 2025 suggest Muslims may comprise 30–35% of the state’s 91 million residents, driven by higher fertility rates and illegal migration.

The shift is most pronounced in border districts. Murshidabad now stands at 66.27% Muslim, Malda at 51.27%, and parts of North 24 Parganas exceed 60%. Kaliganj, once Hindu-majority, is today 58.5% Muslim. With each shift, local traditions, land ownership, and political control have been reconfigured.

Flashpoints of Conflict

Recent unrest underscores the tensions beneath the surface. In April 2025, violence in Murshidabad following protests over Waqf Act amendments was linked, in preliminary Ministry of Home Affairs reports, to Bangladeshi infiltrators. Locals describe curbs on Hindu festivals, land transfers under pressure, and growing cultural alienation.

A retired BSF officer put it bluntly: “This isn’t just about religion; it’s about sovereignty, resources, and the soul of Bengal.”

A Porous Borderline

Stretching 4,096 km, the Indo-Bangladesh border is the world’s fifth-longest, much of it riverine and unfenced. For decades, it has functioned less as a barrier and more as a sieve. Migration began in 1947 with Partition, escalated during East Pakistan’s communal upheavals, and surged during Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War.

Unlike Hindu refugees who often sought formal asylum, many Muslim migrants blended into Bengal’s villages, aided by shared language and kinship ties. By the 1980s, organized rackets emerged, charging thousands of rupees per migrant and lubricated by political and police complicity.

Infiltration as Industry

Intelligence Bureau officials describe the phenomenon as a “well-oiled machinery.” Networks provide safe houses, forged documents, and political shelter. Cases like Abdul Majed—convicted for Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s assassination, yet undetected in Kolkata for 23 years with an Indian passport—illustrate the depth of entrenchment.

ED raids in 2019 revealed rackets worth over ₹5,000 crore annually, with forged Aadhaar cards costing ₹20,000 and passports up to ₹40,000. Human trafficking adds a darker dimension, with girls sold for ₹1–5 lakh each and suspected links to radical groups.

Shifts on the Ground

In the bustling markets of border districts, migrants often take over informal trades—fish farming, vending, small businesses—displacing Hindu farmers and artisans. In Sandeshkhali, Rohingyas arriving seven years ago as laborers soon became enforcers for local strongmen. A retired teacher recalled, “They were given shelters and jobs by TMC leaders.”

Cultural changes followed. Reports from Kaliganj describe objections to Hindu festivals, the silencing of conch shells, and restrictions on rituals. Observers note growing radicalization, with madrassas, external preachers, and burqa adoption altering the social landscape.

Politics and Patronage

For decades, Congress, Left Front, and TMC regimes have been accused of turning a blind eye, if not directly aiding, to infiltration—allegedly cultivating migrants as a dependable vote bank. BJP leaders say this political patronage has entrenched the demographic shift.

The issue now fuels polarisation. Firhad Hakim’s 2024 remark that Muslims could soon form Bengal’s “bigger majority” triggered controversy, while Mamata Banerjee has branded identity checks in other states as “anti-Bengali.” Intelligence officials lament: “The state machinery protects them; any surveillance is branded anti-minority.”

Bengal at a Crossroads

The demographic churn has rippled beyond Bengal, shaping districts in Odisha and Jharkhand, while inflaming communal tensions. For many Hindus tracing their roots to Partition-era displacement, the sense of déjà vu is palpable.

As one Namasudra elder put it: “We fled once in the 1980s, selling land cheaply to move inland. But the story repeats. Where do we go next?”

Bengal today stands at a crossroads, caught between porous borders, political patronage, and competing identities. Whether this “silent invasion” is addressed as a humanitarian crisis, a sovereignty challenge, or a political flashpoint may define not just Bengal’s future, but the nation’s.