Electoral Concerns Grow in Bengal Amid Migration, Demographic Shifts

By a Staff Reporter: West Bengal’s politics is undergoing profound change, shaped by migration, demographic transitions, and intense party rivalries. Over the decades, illegal cross-border infiltration from Bangladesh, porous borders, and economic migration have transformed the state’s social and cultural fabric. These shifts now play a decisive role in elections, where slim margins of victory make every vote crucial.

Demographic Clout and Electoral Dynamics

Muslims constitute nearly 30% of Bengal’s electorate—around 2.25 crore voters—with concentrations in over 100 assembly constituencies and outright majorities in at least 74. Analysts argue that this bloc, combined with undocumented migrants who manage to secure voting credentials, has created a formidable political force.

According to political scientist Aveek Sen, “Muslims of Bengal support the Trinamool Congress (TMC) because they see their interests protected under its rule. For those of Bangladeshi origin, vulnerability compels loyalty, as TMC shields them from deportation.”

Critics allege that before elections, migrant workers—particularly those of Bangladeshi origin—are brought back from other states like Rajasthan and Maharashtra with incentives, and sometimes mobilized as local muscle to influence polls.

The 2024 Kaliganj by-election in Nadia district illustrated this dynamic: in a seat with nearly 59% Muslim electorate, TMC’s Alifa Ahmed won with 55% of votes, while BJP secured strong support in Hindu-majority booths. BJP leaders claimed that TMC strategically encouraged Congress to divide opposition votes.

Electoral Roll Revision: A Potential Gamechanger

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has begun revising voter rolls under Section 20 of the Representation of the People Act, 1950, to remove non-residents. Officially, Bengal has 21.67 lakh outbound migrants, though some experts argue the real number exceeds three crore over decades.

Deletions are expected to affect Muslim-dominated districts such as Murshidabad and Malda, potentially jeopardizing TMC’s narrow victories in dozens of seats. While the TMC has challenged this move in the Supreme Court, the BJP has welcomed it as a step toward cleaner rolls.

Migration, Displacement, and Communal Tensions

Local accounts highlight displacement among Hindu communities in border regions due to demographic pressures, illegal settlement, and sporadic violence. In places like Sandeshkhali and Baduria, residents report land grabbing, intimidation, and communal tensions tied to new migrant groups, including Rohingyas.

These demographic changes have long-term implications. In Baduria, Hindus reportedly declined from 68% in the 1970s to about 32% today. Kaliganj, once majority Hindu in the 1950s, is now projected to fall below 39% Hindu population by 2025.

Rising Radicalism and Communal Flashpoints

The state has witnessed an uptick in communal incidents. The Centre for Study of Society and Secularism (CSSS) noted an 84% rise in such clashes in 2024 nationwide, with Bengal among the hotspots. Events such as the 2017 Baduria riots and 2023 Ram Navami violence in Howrah underscore how demographic and political contestations spill over into the streets.

Some incidents have been linked to radical elements and cross-border networks. Investigations into the 2025 Murshidabad Waqf protests, for instance, pointed to suspected Bangladeshi involvement.

Political Rhetoric and Polarization

Controversial statements by leaders have further deepened divides. TMC minister Firhad Hakim has faced repeated criticism for remarks perceived as communal. The BJP, meanwhile, has highlighted demographic shifts as a major political issue, warning of “demographic engineering.”

Sociologists and historians caution that unchecked migration, radicalization in some religious schools, and community displacements could destabilize Bengal’s plural fabric.

Looking Ahead

With the 2026 Assembly elections approaching, Bengal finds itself at a crossroads. Demographic realities, migration pressures, and identity politics have made the state one of India’s most contested political battlegrounds.

As historian Amiya Basu observes: “If these trends continue, Bengal may not see partition on maps, but it risks a partition of minds and societies.”

The coming years will determine whether Bengal can balance its legacy of cultural diversity with new challenges of demography, governance, and security.