RBI Projects CPI Inflation at 4% for FY 2025-26, Cites Positive Outlook Amid Food Price Correction

By A Staff Reporter

Mumbai – Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for India’s inflation trajectory, stating that headline inflation had moderated during January and February 2025, largely due to a significant correction in food prices. Speaking during a financial briefing in Mumbai, Malhotra noted that the positive shift in food inflation has contributed to a more stable overall inflation outlook going forward.

“The headline inflation moderated during January-February 2025. Following a sharp correction in food inflation, the outlook for food inflation has turned decisively positive,” Malhotra said, attributing the easing pressure to improved supply conditions and policy support.

The Governor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected to average at 4 per cent, well within the RBI’s medium-term target range of 2-6 per cent. The quarterly breakdown of the projection stands at 3.6% in Q1, 3.9% in Q2, 3.8% in Q3, and a slightly higher 4.4% in Q4.