With India Tightening Chenab Control, Pakistan’s Kharif Sowing Season at Risk

By A Staff Reporter

Islamabad/New Delhi — Pakistan's summer crop season is under severe threat as water levels in its major dams plummet, compounded by India’s decision to regulate the flow of the Chenab river following the Pahalgam terror attack. With India tightening its grip on the key river, Pakistan's early kharif sowing window is at risk of wilting before it even begins.

The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has reported a 21% water shortage across the country and a sharp drop in live water storage at the Mangla and Tarbela dams, which are vital for irrigation and power generation. Mangla, on the Jhelum river, currently holds less than 50% of its capacity, while Tarbela on the Indus is slightly above 50%.

The crisis has deepened due to a "sudden decrease" in the Chenab’s flow at Marala, caused by India’s upstream water regulation and dam sediment clearance operations in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan has alleged that India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has left it unable to plan irrigation effectively or prepare for potential monsoon floods.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently raised the issue during a glacier preservation summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, framing India’s suspension of the treaty as a global environmental concern. He appealed for international attention, stating that India’s actions threaten the food security of millions in Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces, which rely heavily on irrigation from the Indus basin.

India has not resumed the transmission of water flow data to Pakistan since suspending the IWT, citing repeated treaty violations by Islamabad and its support for cross-border terrorism, including the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26 Indian civilians.

While Pakistan hopes that the upcoming monsoon may bring temporary relief, agriculture officials warn that unpredictable rainfall cannot replace consistent irrigation, especially during the critical early kharif sowing stage. IRSA has directed provincial water managers to ration supplies carefully, but experts believe without better upstream cooperation, crop yields in the 2025 season may suffer substantially.

India’s move to clear sediments and enhance water storage capacity at the Baglihar and Salal dams has been seen by Islamabad as a shift from decades of treaty-based water sharing to a more unilateral management approach — a potential strategic pivot that may redefine river diplomacy in South Asia.