Trump’s Shift on Russia-Ukraine Casts Shadow Over EU-India Talks

By A Staff Reporter

The visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and 21 EU Commissioners to India on February 27-28 comes at a critical geopolitical moment, with growing concerns over U.S. foreign policy shifts under President Donald Trump. The large delegation—the biggest of its kind to any country—highlights the EU’s efforts to reinforce global partnerships, particularly with India, while navigating tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The timing of the visit is significant, coming just after the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European leaders recently gathered in Kyiv to express solidarity with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and imposed a 16th round of sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, in a stark departure from previous U.S. policy, Trump’s administration voted alongside Russia at the United Nations against an EU-backed resolution calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops.

As the EU seeks to maintain pressure on Moscow, von der Leyen is expected to urge India to reconsider its stance on sanctions, though New Delhi has consistently rejected such measures and increased its oil imports from Russia since 2022. Despite these differences, the main focus of the visit will be revitalizing EU-India ties, which have been overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.

India and the EU are working towards a long-pending Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), but progress has been slow due to disputes over tariffs on cars, wine, and spirits, as well as non-tariff barriers. The visit is expected to provide political momentum ahead of the next round of trade talks scheduled for March 10-14 in Brussels.

The delegation will begin its engagements with a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) meeting, focusing on AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, and green technology. This will be followed by high-level bilateral meetings between EU Commissioners and Indian ministers, a plenary session with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and discussions with Indian business leaders.

Another key agenda item will be updating the EU-India Strategic Roadmap (2020-2025), with an emphasis on Indo-Pacific cooperation. The EU is also expected to discuss “de-risking” its economic ties with China and shifting trade towards India. However, challenges remain—EU-China trade was valued at €739 billion ($775 billion) in 2023, six times higher than EU-India trade at €124 billion ($130 billion).